After a gap of nearly two years, India's industrial production turned negative as it contracted by 0.1 per cent in August, mainly due to a decline in the mining and power generation sectors' output, in addition to an almost flat expansion in the manufacturing sector. According to the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), factory output growth based on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) has also been revised downwards for July to 4.7 per cent from the earlier estimate of 4.8 per cent. "The IIP growth rate for the month of August 2024 is (-) 0.1 per cent, which was 4.7 per cent in the month of July 2024," NSO said in a release.
In 2025 banks are in for challenges such as pressure on margins and slowing credit growth. With the likelihood of a repo rate cut in February or April, external benchmark-linked loans of banks will be repriced immediately. However, deposit rates are expected to adjust more gradually, which could impact the net interest margin (NIM) - a key measure of profitability for banks.
Further relaxation in aircraft capacity deployment coupled with festive season air travel demand helped recovery in the domestic traffic with passenger volume seeing 22 per cent sequential growth in the previous month, ratings agency ICRA said on Wednesday. ICRA also said that the November domestic passenger traffic was close to 50 per cent of the domestic air travel demand in November 2019. The recovery in international passenger traffic, however, is likely to further get delayed in the wake of fresh travel curbs by select countries following the detection of a new virus strain in the UK, it said.
A ramp-up in COVID-19 vaccination, healthy advance estimates of kharif (summer) crop and faster government spending were the factors which led to the revision, the agency said in a statement. It can be noted that after the 7.3 per cent contraction in 2020-21, there were expectations of a higher growth number in 2021-22.
Retail inflation declined to a five-year low of 3.54 per cent in July mainly on account of subdued prices of food items, and base effect, according to official data released on Monday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was 5.08 per cent in June 2024 and 7.44 per cent in July 2023.
The Centre's fiscal deficit at the end of the first seven months of financial year 2024-25 touched 46.5 per cent of the full-year target, government data showed on Friday. In absolute terms, the fiscal deficit -- the gap between government's expenditure and revenue -- was at Rs 7,50,824 crore during April-October period, according to data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA). The deficit stood at 45 per cent of the Budget Estimates (BE) in the corresponding period of 2023-24.
Retail inflation breached the Reserve Bank's upper tolerance level, soaring to a 14-month high of 6.21 per cent in October mainly on account of rising food prices. Inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI) was 5.49 per cent in September and 4.87 per cent in the year-ago month. Retail inflation trended below the RBI's upper tolerance band of 6 per cent since September last year.
However, copious oil supplies amid growing global output and slowing Chinese oil consumption will put India in a better bargaining position with Gulf suppliers.
Despite gross domestic product (GDP) growth being lower-than-expected for the July-September quarter, the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may not cut the policy repo rate in the review meeting scheduled for next week due to high inflation in October, according to experts. "Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation breaching the upper limit of the RBI's tolerance band in October (6.2 per cent year-on-year) is not a favourable backdrop for the MPC to commence the easing cycle, even as the growth outcome disappointed the MPC's expectations," said Shreya Sodhani, regional economist at Barclays, who expects the policy repo rate to be kept unchanged in the December meeting.
The anticipated adverse impact on the economy and consequent uncertainty around employment prospects is likely to result in lower purchasing power.
Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra, Hyundai and MG Motors are gearing up to introduce EVs in India.
Prices of various car models -- ranging from entry-level hatchbacks to high-end luxury offerings -- are set to rise as automakers have announced price hikes with effect from January. Carmakers cite an increase in input costs and operational expenses as the main reason to implement price increases from the next month. Industry experts, however, note that the exercise is also undertaken by automakers every year in December to shore up sales volume in the last month of the year, as customers postpone buyouts to later months to get the new year manufactured units.
With decline in number of fresh COVID-19 cases and easing of restrictions, the country's gross domestic product (GDP) will grow at 8.5 per cent in FY2021-22, according to credit rating agency Icra Ratings. It expects the gross value added (GVA) at basic prices (at constant 2011-12 prices) to grow at 7.3 per cent in FY2022. "The impact of the second wave of COVID-19 and the ensuing state-wise restrictions was seen across a variety of high frequency indicators in April-May 2021.
Passenger Vehicle makers are likely to see their cumulative earnings at an operating level erode by Rs 1,800-2,000 crore in the year ending March 2022 on account of the shortage of semiconductors, rating agency Icra said at a webinar on Wednesday. The industry, it pointed out, is estimated to lose production of 500,000 units at the end of FY22 due to the chronovc shortage the chip, which is critical in safety, entertainment and the various other smart features of a car. "In absence of the chip crisis, the industry volumes are likely to have exceeded the all-time peak annual volumes." Icra has pared its growth estimates for the PV market from the earlier 10-14 per cent to 8-11 per cent now in FY22.
Mining conglomerate Vedanta Limited has received approvals from the majority of its creditors for a proposed demerger of businesses, marking an important step in the company's plan to split into six independent listed companies. "I am happy to let all of you know that we have received the 52 per cent plus the additional percentage, which is required for us to reach 75 per cent. "We have crossed that threshold as well. Most of the lenders have approved it," a senior Vedanta executive said in a recent bondholder conference call.
'In addition, we have geopolitics and politics and all the other things that will affect commodity prices.'
Rating agency Icra on Wednesday said while there is some evidence of the economic recovery becoming broad-based in the third quarter of fiscal 2022, it is yet to attain the durability being sought by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) as a precursor to policy transmission. The agency expects the real GDP to expand 6-6.5 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of FY2022 (+8.4 per cent in Q2 FY2022). It also sees the RBI maintaining the status quo in the upcoming monetary policy review to be held in February.
Share prices of Nestle India, Asian Paints, Bandhan Bank, Tata Technologies, AU Small Finance Bank and Avenue Supermarts, all a part of the BSE 500 index, have hit their respective 52-week lows on the BSE in Thursday's intra-day trade after a sharp correction in the equity markets.
Equity mutual funds witnessed an inflow of Rs 35,943 crore in November, marking a drop of 14 per cent on a month-on-month basis, amid heightened volatility in stock markets driven by various macroeconomic factors, geopolitical events and US election results. Despite this, it marked the 45th consecutive month of net inflows into equity-oriented funds, reflecting the growing popularity of mutual funds among investors, according to data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) released on Tuesday.
Wholesale inflation fell to a 3-month low of 2.04 per cent in July on decline in prices of food items especially vegetables, government data released on Wednesday showed. The decline in wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation in July came after it rose for four months in a row till June, when it was 3.36 per cent. It was (-) 1.23 per cent in July last year. In April wholesale inflation stood at 1.19 per cent.
India's economic growth slowed to near two-year low of 5.4 per cent in the July-September quarter of this fiscal due to poor performance of manufacturing and mining sectors, but the country continued to remain the fastest-growing large economy, data showed on Friday. The gross domestic product (GDP) had expanded by 8.1 per cent in the July-September quarter of 2023-24 fiscal. The previous low level of GDP growth at 4.3 per cent was recorded in the third quarter (October-December 2022) of financial year 2022-23.
The December meeting of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will start on Wednesday even as there is no clarity on whether Governor Shaktikanta Das, the chair of the panel, will continue in office after his term ends next week. The outcome of the meeting will be announced on Friday by Das at 10 in the morning.
Soaring vegetable prices pushed the retail inflation rate to a nine-month high of 5.49 pr cent in September, according to government data released on Monday. The consumer price index (CPI)-based retail inflation rate was 3.65 per cent in August and 5.02 per in September 2023. The previous high inflation rate was witnessed in December 2023 at 5.69 per cent.
After a strong show during the September quarter (Q2FY25) and favourable demand conditions, going ahead, the country's largest player in the room air conditioner segment, Voltas is well placed to improve its market share. Expectations of record volumes in FY25 for the sector and the company's strategy of prioritising market share over margins could help the leader expand share in the room AC segment.
The government has slashed by up to a fifth the supplies of cheaper gas to city gas entities that retail CNG to automobiles, increasing their dependence in costly imported fuel. Buying costly imported gas to make up for the shortfall should result in a hike in CNG price but given the ensuing assembly elections in Maharashtra, that may be put off for now. Indraprastha Gas Ltd and Mahanagar Gas Ltd in regulatory filings stated that supplies of domestically produced gas, which was available at a capped rate which is half of the imported price, has been cut.
Gold, a safe-haven bet, is likely to continue its record-smashing journey in the New Year, rising to Rs 85,000 per 10 grams and even Rs 90,000 level in domestic markets if geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties continue.
Tata Power's Q2FY25 reported results were above consensus despite challenges like low plant availability at Mundra and Odisha discom operations affected by rain. A positive development for the power major included module manufacturing hitting nearly 100 per cent capacity utilisation. The Board has approved an investment proposal for a 1GW pumped storage project (PSP).
This move was triggered by a whistleblower complaint sent to Sebi against senior management interference in ensuring good ratings specifically in IL&FS and its subsidiaries.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has sought granular data from select non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) on their loan book growth. The details sought are on the outstanding product-wise portfolio and the annualised interest charged on them. The annualised interest slabs mentioned are as follows: less than 10 per cent, 10-20 per cent, 20-30 per cent, 30-40 per cent, 40-50 per cent, and above 50 per cent.
Domestic ratings agency Icra on Monday forecast a 2 per cent GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2020-21, and a 7.3 per cent contraction for the full fiscal year. From a GVA or gross value added perspective, the agency pegs Q4 growth at 3 per cent and the full year contraction at 6.3 per cent. According to the agency, the 2 per cent projected GDP growth will help the economy avoid a double-dip recession as indicated by the National Statistical Office (NSO) for Q4. Icra's projection is better than the 8 per cent contraction forecast by the NSO as it sees Q4 growth at only 1.1 per cent.
Collection dived to 75-80% in November-December from 99% after demonetisation.
Rating agency ICRA said on Tuesday that a remarkable aspect of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary and Credit Policy for the First Half of 2004-05 is its timing.
The GDP growth is estimated to come at the "deceptively high" level of 20 per cent for the April-June 2021 quarter but is far below the same in the pre-COVID times, rating agency Icra said on Wednesday. Icra said the low base of the last year, when the GDP had contracted by close to 24 per cent, "conceals" the impact of the second wave of COVID-19 infections. Economic activity is boosted by robust government capital expenditure, merchandise exports and demand from the farm sector, it said, estimating the GDP to grow by 20 per cent and the gross value added (GVA) will register a growth of 17 per cent for the June quarter.
A rise in petrol and diesel consumption can help the government cut cesses on the fuels by Rs 4.5 a litre without impacting revenue collections of FY21, and help cool off the pressure on inflation, domestic rating agency ICRA said on Friday. Petrol consumption is estimated to increase 14 per cent in 2021-22 and diesel by 10 per cent on the lower base, rise in mobility and economic recovery, ICRA said. The rating agency added that it will result in an additional Rs 40,000 crore in revenue for the government through higher collections of the cess.
The growth in production of eight key infrastructure sectors slowed down to a 20-month low of 4 per cent in June this year due to a decline in the output of crude oil and refinery products, according to official data released on Wednesday. The core sectors' production grew by 6.4 per cent in May 2024. The growth of core sectors -- coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertiliser, steel, cement and electricity -- was 8.4 per cent in June 2023.
The reason for both the officials being sent on leave is the same - an anonymous complaint received by the market regulator against the agency.
Demand for digital technologies and resumption of normal economic activities will drive sales for IT companies, and the sector will post a revenue growth of up to 9 per cent in 2021-22, a report said on Thursday. Rating agency Icra gave a "stable" outlook for the sector, whose size is pegged at over $180 billion by industry lobby Nasscom, including the business process outsourcing business. The IT services sector's revenues will rise between 7-9 per cent in rupee terms and between 5-8 per cent in dollar terms in 2021-22, it estimated.
Retail inflation in August inched up to 3.65 per cent, though vegetables and pulses witnessed price rise in double digits, according to official data released on Thursday. The retail inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), however, remained below the Reserve Bank's median target of 4 per cent for the second month in a row. It was at a five-year low of 3.6 per cent in July.
After establishing a presence in Indonesia and Sri Lanka, Icra, the rating agency and associate of Moody's in India, plans to expand further in Asia to get a slice of business from the growing bond markets.
The upgrade, said Icra, takes into account the "robust internal accrual generation, leading to low reliance on debt, as well as gearing levels, and strong debt protection metrics".
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